Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, August 13, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea decreased 0.8 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent in June.
- The leading index decreased 0.8 percent in June reversing an equivalent increase in May, but the index is still 3.8 percent above its most recent low - which occurred in April 2001. The weakness in this index was a result of increasing inventory levels, reduced demand for building permits, and declining stock prices during June.
- The coincident index, a measure of current conditions, decreased modestly in June- the only decline in this index since October 2001. The weakness in this index during June can be attributed to a marked decline in industrial production and wholesale and retail sales.
Leading Indicators. Three of the eight components that make up the leading index decreased in May. The negative contributors - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are inverted index of inventories to shipments for manufacturing, authorized building permits, and stock prices. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are value of machinery orders in manufacturing, inverted yield of government public bonds, real exports, monthly hours worked*, and letter of credit arrivals in manufacturing.
With the decrease of 0.8 percent in June, the leading index now stands at 113.3 (1990=100). This index increased 0.8 percent in May and decreased 0.4 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 3.7 percent, and six of the eight components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in June. The negative contributors to the index are industrial production and wholesale and retail sales, in that order. The positive contributors to the index are the inverted unemployment rate and total employment,in that order.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in June, the coincident index now stands at 111.4 (1990=100). This index remained unchanged in May and April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 0.9 percent, and all four of its components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (EST) on August 9, 2002.
*Notes: The series in the leading index that is based on The Conference Board estimates is monthly hours worked.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.