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Benchmark Revisions - November 2006

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Released: Tuesday, October 15, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan remained unchanged, and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) was also unchanged in August.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Japan remained unchanged in August, after increasing slightly in the last two months.  During the six-month period ending August 2013, the LEI increased 4.4 percent (about a 9.1 percent annual rate), up from the 2.2 percent increase (about a 4.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Moreover, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained very widespread, with all leading indicators advancing in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, was also unchanged in August. Between February and August 2013, the CEI declined slightly, by 0.1 percent (about a -0.2 percent annual rate), a reversal from the 0.3 percent increase (about a 0.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. However, the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators were balanced. Meanwhile, Japan’s real GDP for the second quarter of 2013 was recently revised up to 3.8 percent (annual rate) from the previously reported 2.6 percent, but it is still down from 4.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Japan remained unchanged in August, but its six-month growth rate remains higher than earlier this year, and the strengths among the components have been very widespread. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Japan was also unchanged in August, but its six-month growth rate has turned slightly negative. Although the widespread strength in the LEI suggests that the economy will continue expanding, the recent moderation in the rate of growth in both the LEI and CEI also suggests that the current rapid pace of economic expansion is unlikely to persist in the coming months.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Six of the ten components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Japan increased in August.  The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include the Tankan business conditions survey, the interest rate spread, (inverted) business failures, real money supply, the six-month growth rate of labor productivity, and real operating profits*.  The negative contributors – in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – include stock prices, dwelling units started,  the new orders for machinery and construction component*, and the index of overtime worked.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan now stands at 99.0 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in July and June.  During the six-month span through August, the index increased 4.4 percent, and all ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Only one of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Japan increased in August. The positive contributor to the index was wage and salary income.  Industrial production, number of employed persons, and the retail, wholesale, and manufacturing sales* component declined in August.

The Conference Board CEI for Japan now stands at 96.7 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in July and declined 0.5 percent in June.  During the six-month span through August, the index decreased 0.1 percent, and two of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY AND NOTES.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan reported in this release are those available “as of” 5:00 P.M. ET October 14, 2013.  Some series are estimated as noted below.

* The series in The Conference Board LEI that are based on our estimates is real operating profits and the new orders for machinery and construction component.  The series in The Conference Board CEI that is based on our estimates is real manufacturing sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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