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Benchmark Revisions - November 2006

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Released: Tuesday, June 11, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan increased 0.4 percent The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®  (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in April.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Japan increased again in April, its fifth consecutive gain. Stock prices and the Tankan business conditions survey both made large positive contributions this month. Between October 2012 and April 2013, the LEI increased 6.1 percent (about a 12.5 percent annual rate), sharply up from the decline of 5.0 percent (about a -9.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Moreover, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained very widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in April. The six-month growth rate of the CEI picked up to 0.7 percent (about a 1.5 percent annual rate), a reversal from the decline of 0.7 percent (about a -1.4 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the strengths among the coincident indicators have also remained widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, Japan’s real GDP grew 4.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2013, up from the 1.2 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2012.  
  • The Conference Board LEI for Japan has been increasing since December 2012, and as a result, its six-month growth is up sharply. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Japan has been increasing since the beginning of 2013, and its six-month change has also improved from the second half of last year. Taken together, the improvements in both the LEI and CEI suggest that the current rate of economic expansion is likely to continue in the coming months.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Eight of the ten components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Japan increased in April. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include stock prices, the Tankan business conditions survey, the six month growth rate of labor productivity, dwelling units started, real operating profits*,  the interest rate spread,  real money supply, and the new orders for machinery and construction component*. The negative contributors include the index of overtime worked and (inverted) business failures.

With the increase of 0.4 percent in April, The Conference Board LEI for Japan now stands at 97.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 2.6 percent in March and increased 1.4 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 6.1 percent, and nine of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 90.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Japan increased in April. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include industrial production, the retail, wholesale, and manufacturing sales* component, and number of employed persons. Wage and salary income was unchanged in April.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in April, The Conference Board CEI for Japan now stands at 97.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in March and increased 0.2 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 0.7 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY AND NOTES.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan reported in this release are those available “as of” 5:00 P.M. ET June 10, 2013.  Some series are estimated as noted below.

* The series in The Conference Board LEI that are based on our estimates are real operating profits and new orders for machinery.  The series in The Conference Board CEI that is based on our estimates is real manufacturing sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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StraightTalk®

Straight Talk November 2013

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2014: Time to realize the opportunities for growth

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GDP is projected to grow by 2.0 percent in 2014 with the second half of this year revised lower from an average of a 2.8 percent pace to about 2.5 percent pace.

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