Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - November 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, January 8, 2004
The Conference Board reports today that the leading index for Japan increased 0.5 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.7 percent in November.
- The leading index increased for the seventh consecutive month in November. In addition, actual profit figures were released for the third quarter, and this further strengthened the recent growth in the leading index. The net result is that the leading index has increased at an 8.8 percent annual rate since its most recent low in April, and the strength continues to be widespread.
- Real GDP has increased at about a 2.0 percent annual rate in recent quarters, and the continued widespread strength in the leading index is signaling stronger growth in the near term.
Leading Indicators.Eight of the ten components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include business failures, (inverted) index of overtime worked, the six month growth rate of labor productivity*, the Tankan business conditions survey, real money supply, new orders for machinery and construction*, dwelling units started, and real operating profits*. Stock prices and yield spread declined in November.
With an increase of 0.5 percent in November, the leading index now stands at 95.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.0 percent in October and increased 0.5 percent again in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 4.4 percent, and nine of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 90.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Four of the six components that make up the coincident index decreased in November. The negative contributors to the index – in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – include real wholesale sales, real retail sales, number of employed persons, and real manufacturing sales*. Industrial production and wage and salary income* increased in November.
With a 0.7 percent decrease in November, the coincident index now stands at 101.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.4 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 1.2 percent, and one of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 16.7 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 5:00 P.M. ET January 7, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: The series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real operating profits, the six-month growth rate of labor productivity, and new orders for machinery. The series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real manufacturing sales and wage and salary income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.