Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - November 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, January 8, 2003
The leading index for Japan increased 0.1 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent in November.
- The leading index continued to increase in November and is now 4.87 percent above its level at the beginning of the year. This month’s increase was primarily due to an increase in the index of overtime worked in manufacturing and a decrease in business failures.
- A sharp decline in industrial production was the primary factor driving the coincident index down in November. Despite this decline, the severity of the downward trend in the index continues to moderate.
Leading Indicators. Five of the ten components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are index of overtime worked in manufacturing, business failures*, the Tankan business conditions survey, dwelling units started*, and new orders for machinery and construction*. Four components decreased in November. The negative contributors to the index – in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – are the real money supply, stock price index, six month growth rate of labor productivity*, and real operating profits*. The yield spread remained unchanged.
The leading index now stands at 91.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in October and remained unchanged in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.5 percent, and six of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 60.0 percent)
Coincident Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the coincident index decreased in November. The negative contributors – in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – are industrial production, real wholesale sales*, and the number of employed persons. Three components increased in November. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are real retail sales, real manufacturing sales*, and wage and salary income*.
With a decrease of 0.2 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 101.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and decreased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.1 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 41.7 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10:00 A.M. ET January 7, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: The series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real operating profits, dwelling units started, business failures, the six-month growth rate of labor productivity, and new orders for machinery and construction. The series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real manufacturing sales, real wholesale sales, and wage and salary income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.