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Benchmark Revisions - November 2006

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Released: Wednesday, December 11, 2002

The leading index for Japan increased 0.2 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in October.

  • The Coincident Index also turned up in the latest month, rising 0.1 percent from September. Over the past few months, the severity of the downward trend has been moderating, with a sharp increase in real wholesale sales as the primary reason for the gain in October.

Leading Indicators. Five of the ten components that make up the leading index increased in October. The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are business failures, real money supply, dwelling units started, new orders for machinery and construction, and the Tankan business conditions survey. Five components decreased in October. The negative contributors to the index – in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – are the stock price index, yield spread, index of overtime worked in manufacturing, real operating profits*, and six month growth rate of labor productivity*.

The leading index now stands at 91.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in September and decreased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 2.1percent, and six of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 60.0 percent).

Coincident Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the coincident index decreased in October. The negative contributors – in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – are real retail sales, the number of employed persons, and industrial production. Three of the six components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are real wholesale sales, real manufacturing sales*, and wage and salary income*.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in October, the coincident index now stands at 101.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in September and increased 0.3 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 0.3 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET December 11, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.

*Notes: The series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real operating profits and the six-month growth rate of labor productivity. The series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real manufacturing sales and wage and salary income.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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