Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - November 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, November 13, 2002
The leading index for Japan remained unchanged and the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent in September.
- The mild weakness in the Leading index over the past two months is mainly due to the significant decline in the stock market. Despite this, the index has recovered all of its losses from the previous year and is up 5.5 percent this year.
- Although the coincident index decreased this month, the severity of the downward trend in the index seems to be moderating. A sharp decline in real wholesale sales was the primary reason for the decline in the index in September.
Leading Indicators. Seven of the ten components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors to the index - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are real money supply, dwelling units started, new orders for machinery and construction, real operating profits*, the Tankan business conditions survey, the index of overtime worked in manufacturing, and the six-month growth rate of labor productivity per man-hour in manufacturing*. Two components decreased in September. The negative contributors to the index - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are stock prices and business failures. The yield spread remained unchanged in September.
The leading index now stands at 91.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in August and increased 0.1 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 3.6 percent, and seven of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 70.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the coincident index decreased in September. The negative contributors - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are real wholesale sales, the industrial production index and the number of employed persons. The index of wage and salary income increased in September while real retail sales and real manufacturing sales remained unchanged.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in September, the coincident index now stands at 100.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in August and decreased 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index decreased 0.3 percent, and two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10:00 A.M. ET November 12, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: The series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real operating profits and the six-month growth rate of labor productivity. The series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real manufacturing sales and wage and salary income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.