Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - November 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, July 12, 2002
The leading index for Japan increased 1.3 percent and the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in May.
- The coincident index rose on the strength of industrial production, which had its largest monthly increase in almost ten years.
- The continued increase in the leading index is a result of strength in labor productivity and overtime hours worked in the manufacturing sector. This recovery is widespread throughout the leading indicators of the Japanese economy. This is a positive sign that the Japanese economy will be able to sustain its recovery.
LEADING INDICATORS. Eight of the ten components that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are inverted business failures, the index of overtime worked in manufacturing, the six-month growth rate of labor productivity per man-hour in manufacturing*, the Tankan business conditions survey, dwelling units started, new orders for machinery and construction*, the stock prices index, and real operating profits*. Two components held steady in May. They are the yield spread and real money supply.
With the increase of 1.3 percent, the leading index now stands at 90.4 (1990=100). With revision, this index increased 1.0 percent in April and increased 1.1 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 4.3 percent, and seven of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the industrial production index, real wholesale sales, real retail sales, real manufacturing sales*, and the index of wage and salary income*. Only the number of employed persons made a negative contribution in May.
Increasing 0.2 percent in May, the coincident index now stands at 101.4 (1990=100). With revision, this index increased 0.1 percent in April and decreased 0.4 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index decreased 0.4 percent, and only three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10:00 A.M. ET July 8, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: The series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real operating profits, six-month growth rate of labor productivity in manufacturing, and machinery component of the new orders for machinery and construction. The series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real manufacturing sales and the index of wages and salaries income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.