Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - November 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, August 15, 2002
The leading index for Japan increased 0.4 percent and the coincident index remained unchanged in June.
- The leading index continues on a path of recovery that began in January. The continued increase in the leading index is mainly due to strength in the business sector: increased labor productivity in manufacturing, positive surveyed business condition results, and decreased number of business failures.
- Despite the recent upturn in the leading index, the coincident index remained steady with widespread weakness among most of its components as shown by both the one and six-month diffusion indexes falling below 50 percent. Continued weakness in the coincident index is due largely to Japan's weak domestic economy.
Leading Indicators. Six of the ten components that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the six-month growth rate of labor productivity per man-hour in manufacturing*, inverted business failures, new orders for machinery and construction, the Tankan business conditions survey, the index of overtime worked in manufacturing, and real operating profits*. Real money supply held steady in June. The negative contributors to the index - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are the stock price index, the yield spread, and dwelling units started.
With the increase of 0.4 percent, the leading index now stands at 91.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.6 percent in May and increased 1.0 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 5.0 percent, and seven of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are number of employed persons, real manufacturing sales*, and the index of wage and salary income*. The remaining three components decreased in June. They are - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - real wholesale sales, the industrial production index, real retail sales.
Remaining unchanged in June, the coincident index now stands at 101.3 (1990=100). This index increased 0.1 percent in May and also increased 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index decreased 0.4 percent, and only two of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10:00 A.M. ET August 12, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: The series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real operating profits and six-month growth rate of labor productivity in manufacturing. The series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real manufacturing sales and the index of wages and salaries income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.