Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - November 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, September 11, 2002
The leading index for Japan increased 0.3 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in July.
- Marking its seventh consecutive increase in July, the leading index is 0.3 percent above its most recent peak reached in October 2000. The recovery is from a steep decline of 5.3 percent below that previous peak.
- Continuing strength in most business sector components of the leading index - labor productivity in manufacturing, surveyed business conditions, hours worked, operating profits, and new orders - was offset by a declining stock market.
- The coincident index decreased in July for the second consecutive month, with widespread weakness among most of its components as shown by both the one- and six-month diffusion indexes remaining well below 50 percent. While continued weakness is largely due to slow sales, favorable turns in employment and income seem promising.
Leading Indicators. Six of the ten components that make up the leading index increased in July. The positive contributors to the index—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the six-month growth rate of labor productivity per man-hour in manufacturing*, the index of overtime worked in manufacturing, the Tankan business conditions survey, real operating profits*, real money supply, and new orders for machinery and construction*. Dwelling units started and the yield spread held steady in July. The negative contributors to the index—from the larger negative contributor to the smaller—are the stock price index, and inverted business failures.
With the increase of 0.3 percent, the leading index now stands at 91.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in June and increased 1.8 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 5.3 percent, and seven of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 70.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Four of the six components that make up the coincident index decreased in July. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are real retail sales, real wholesale sales, the industrial production index, and real manufacturing sales*. Number of employed persons and the index of wage and salary income* increased in July, in that order.
Decreasing 0.1 percent in July, the coincident index now stands at 100.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in June and held steady in May. During the six-month span through July, the index decreased 0.5 percent, and only one of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 16.7 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10:00 A.M. ET September 9, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: The series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real operating profits, six-month growth rate of labor productivity in manufacturing, and new orders for machinery and construction. The series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real manufacturing sales and the index of wages and salaries income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.