Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, May 23, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in March.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in March, with large positive contributions from consumer confidence, new residential construction orders and the yield spread more than offsetting negative contributions from new orders of investment goods industries and stock prices. Between September 2013 and March 2014, the leading economic index increased 2.6 percent (about a 5.3 percent annual rate), an improvement from 1.5 percent (about a 3.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have become very widespread with all indicators advancing over the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, edged up in March. Over the six-month period ending in March, the coincident economic index increased 0.8 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate), up slightly from 0.5 percent (about a 0.9 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. The strengths among the components have remained very widespread in the same time span. Meanwhile, real GDP grew 3.3 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2014, up from 1.5 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2013.
- The LEI for Germany has been trending upward since December 2012, and consequently its six-month growth rate has improved in recent months. Meanwhile the CEI has also been on an upward trend over the past year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic growth will continue to improve in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in March. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were consumer confidence, new residential construction orders*, the yield spread, and inventory change*. Negative contributors — in order from largest to smallest — were new orders in investment goods industries and stock prices. Gross enterprises and properties income* remained unchanged in March.
With the 0.3 percent increase in March, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 110.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in both February and January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 2.6 percent, with all seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in March. The positive contributors were employed persons, manufacturing sales, and retail trade. Industrial production declined in March.
With the 0.1 percent increase in March, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 108.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in February and increased 0.4 percent in January. During the six-month period through March, the index increased 0.8 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).
* See notes under data availability.
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET May 20, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.
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THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.