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Released: Wednesday, April 23, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in February.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Germany rose again in February, with the yield spread, new residential construction orders, and inventory change making the largest positive contributions. Between August 2013 and February 2014, the leading economic index increased 1.7 percent (about a 3.4 percent annual rate), down from 2.4 percent (about a 5.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Nevertheless, the strengths among the leading indicators remained more widespread than the weaknesses during the past six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, improved in February. Over the six-month period ending in February, the coincident economic index increased 0.8 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate), up slightly from 0.6 percent (about a 1.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. The strengths among the components have remained very widespread during this span. Meanwhile, real GDP grew 1.5 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2013, up from 1.3 percent (annual rate) growth in the third quarter.
  • The LEI for Germany increased for the fifth consecutive month in February, although its six-month growth rate has moderated recently. The CEI increased again in February and has been on an upward trend for the past 12 months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy will continue expanding moderately through the first half of 2014.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in February. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, new residential construction orders*, inventory change*, new orders in investment goods industries, and consumer confidence. The only negative contributor was stock prices, while gross enterprises, and properties income* remained unchanged in February.

With the 0.3 percent increase in February, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 109.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in January and increased 0.3 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 1.7 percent, with six of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in February. The positive contributors were retail trade, employed persons, manufacturing sales, and industrial production.    

With the 0.3 percent increase in February, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 108.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in January and decreased 0.1 percent in December. During the six-month period through February, the index increased 0.8 percent, with all of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 8:00 A.M. ET April 22, 2014.  Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.  

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and>/em> better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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