Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, February 21, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in December.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased slightly in December, with the yield spread, stock prices, and inventory change advancing. Between June and December 2013, the leading economic index increased 1.2 percent (about a 2.4 percent annual rate), down from 2.6 percent (about a 5.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses during the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, declined in December. Over the six months period ending in December, the coincident economic index was unchanged, after growing by 0.9 percent (about a 1.9 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. The strengths and the weaknesses among the components have become balanced during the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP rose by 1.5 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2013, after increasing 1.3 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter.
- The LEI for Germany has been on an upward trend throughout 2013, though its six-month growth rate has recently moderated. At the same time, the CEI showed a slight increase in 2013, and as a result its six-month growth rate has also eased. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the German economy will continue expanding at a slow pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in December. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, stock prices, and inventory change*. Negative contributors — in order from largest to smallest — were new residential construction orders*, new orders in investment goods industries, and consumer confidence. Gross enterprises and properties income* remained unchanged in December.
With the 0.1 percent increase in December, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 108.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in November and increased 0.1 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 1.2 percent, with five of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany, only employed persons increased in December. Retail trade, industrial production, and manufacturing sales declined in December.
With the 0.2 percent decrease in December, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in November and decreased 0.2 percent in October. During the six-month period through December, the index remained unchanged, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
* See notes under data availability.
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET February 20, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.
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THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.