Global Business Cycle Indicators

Germany

Press Releases

Latest
Archive

Data

Purchase Data

Benchmark Revisions - March 2007

Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, January 23, 2014

****************************************************************

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
For more information, please visit our website at
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact indicators@conference-board.org.

****************************************************************

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.6 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in November.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Germany continued to increase through November, with the yield spread, stock prices, and consumer confidence making the largest positive contributions. Between May and November 2013, the leading economic index increased 1.9 percent (about a 3.8 percent annual rate), down from 2.6 percent (about a 5.3 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators remained more widespread than the weaknesses during the past six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, improved in November. Over the six months period ending in November, the coincident economic index increased 0.4 percent (about a 0.7 percent annual rate), down slightly from 0.6 percent (about a 1.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. The strengths among the components have remained more widespread than the weaknesses during the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP rose by 1.3 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2013, after increasing 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
  • The LEI for Germany has been improving since the end of 2012, though its six-month growth rate has moderated recently. The CEI slightly increased through 2013, and its six-month growth rate has also moderated. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy’s recent slow to moderate expansion will continue in the first half of 2014.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in November. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, stock prices, consumer confidence, new orders in investment goods industries, and inventory change*.  Negative contributors — starting from the larger negative contributor — were new residential construction orders* and gross enterprises and properties income*.

With the 0.6 percent increase in November, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 108.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in October and declined 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.9 percent, with six of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in November — industrial production, retail trade, employed persons, and manufacturing sales.    

With the 0.3 percent increase in November, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in October and was unchanged in September. During the six-month period through November, the index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET January 20, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.  

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Global Indicators

StraightTalk®

Straight Talk November 2013

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2014: Time to realize the opportunities for growth

From the Chief Economist

Strong Topline GDP Growth Overstates the Strength in the Economy

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis today reported 3.5 percent annualized growth in real Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter of 2014, which is above expectations ...

Read the article
Archives

  • Human Capital
  • Back to Top