Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, December 20, 2013
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties
of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany remained unchanged and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in October.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany was unchanged in October. The index was revised downward between June and September, after third quarter inventory and gross enterprises and properties income data became available. In the six-month period ending October, the leading economic index increased 1.7 percent (about a 3.5 percent annual rate), slightly below its 2.0 percent growth (about a 4.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been very widespread, with all seven components advancing during the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, decreased slightly in October. Between April and October 2013, the coincident economic index increased by 0.1 percent (about a 0.2 percent annual rate), slower than its growth of 0.6 percent (about a 1.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. During this same period, the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators have become balanced. Meanwhile, real GDP rose by 1.3 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, after increasing 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- In recent months, the six-month growth rate of the LEI for Germany has moderated, although all components improved. At the same time, the CEI has been essentially flat, after edging up during the first half of this year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy will continue to expand at a slow pace into early 2014.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in October. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, stock prices, and inventory change*. Negative contributors — in order from largest to smallest — were new residential construction orders*, new orders in investment goods industries, consumer confidence, and gross enterprises and properties income*.
After remaining unchanged in October, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 106.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.3 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.7 percent, with all seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany, only employed persons increased in October. Industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing sales declined.
With the 0.2 percent decrease in October, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in September and increased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the index increased 0.1 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET December 18, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.
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