Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, October 23, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in August.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased for the fourth consecutive month in August, as large positive contributions from the yield spread and new orders from investment industries more than offset the negative contribution from consumer confidence. In the six-month period ending in August, the leading economic index increased by 3.0 percent (about a 6.0 percent annual rate), an improvement from its 1.1 percent increase (about a 2.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been very widespread, with all seven components increasing during the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in August. Between February and August 2013, the coincident economic index increased by 0.7 percent (about a 1.3 percent annual rate), a reversal from its contraction of 0.4 percent (about a -0.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. During this same period, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses. Meanwhile, real GDP rose at a 2.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter, after remaining unchanged in the first quarter.
- The LEI for Germany has been on an upward trend since November 2012, and the strengths among its components remain widespread. At the same time, the CEI for Germany has also been trending up since the end of 2012, and its six-month growth rate has improved. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the moderate growth in German economy will likely be sustained through the end of this year.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in August. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, new orders in investment goods industries, stock prices, new residential construction orders*, inventory change*, and gross enterprises and properties income*. The only negative contributor was consumer confidence.
With the 0.4 percent increase in August, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 107.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in July and 0.8 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 3.0 percent, with all of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in August. The positive contributors were industrial production and employed persons, while retail trade and manufacturing sales declined.
With the 0.1 percent increase in August, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in July and increased 0.2 percent in June. During the six-month period through August, the index increased 0.7 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET October 21, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.
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THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.