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Released: Monday, September 23, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.6 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.3 percent in July.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Germany continued to increase in July, with all seven components making positive contributions to the index. Following the release of June data for new residential construction orders, the index was revised upward for that month. In the six-month period ending in July, the leading economic index increased by 2.9 percent (about a 5.9 percent annual rate), an improvement from its 0.6 percent increase (about a 1.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been very widespread, with all seven components increasing during the past six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, fell for the first time in 2013. Between January and July 2013, the coincident economic index increased by 0.4 percent (about a 0.7 percent annual rate), a reversal from its contraction of 0.4 percent (about a -0.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. During this same period, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses. Meanwhile, real GDP rose at a 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, after remaining unchanged in the first quarter.
  • The LEI for Germany has been on an upward trend since October 2012, and the strengths among its components remain widespread. The CEI for Germany fell in July, but has been rising for most of 2013. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the German economy will likely grow at a slow to moderate pace during the second half of 2013.

LEADING INDICATORS.  All seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in July. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were new residential construction orders*, the yield spread, new orders in investment goods industries, consumer confidence, gross enterprises and properties income*, stock prices, and inventory change.  

With the 0.6 percent increase in July, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 107.0 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in June and increased 0.5 percent in May.  During the six-month span through July, the index increased 2.9 percent, with all seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Only one of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany, employed persons, increased in July. Industrial production, manufacturing sales, and retail trade declined in July.

With the 0.3 percent decrease in July, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.4 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in June and increased 0.1 percent in May.  During the six-month period through July, the index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET September 18, 2013.  Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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