Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, August 20, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in June.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany continued to increase in June with the yield spread, new orders in investment goods industries, and consumer confidence making the largest positive contributions. In the six-month period ending in June, the leading economic index increased by 2.0 percent (about a 4.1 percent annual rate), an improvement from its contraction of 0.4 percent (about a -0.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased for a sixth consecutive month. Between December 2012 and June 2013, the coincident economic index increased 1.1 percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate), more than reversing its decline of 0.5 percent (about a -0.9 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. During this same period, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become very widespread with all components rising. Meanwhile, real GDP advanced by 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, after remaining unchanged in the first quarter.
- The LEI for Germany has increased in five out of the first six months of 2013, and the strengths among the indicators remain widespread. The CEI for Germany has also been on an upward trend since the beginning of this year, and as a result, its six-month growth rate keeps improving. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the German economy will likely continue expanding during the second half of 2013.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in June. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, new orders in investment goods industries, consumer confidence, inventory change*, new residential construction orders*, and gross enterprises and properties income*. Stock prices declined in June.
With the 0.2 percent increase in June, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 105.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in May and declined 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 2.0 percent, with six of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in June. The positive contributors were industrial production, manufacturing sales, and employed persons. Retail trade declined in June.
With the 0.3 percent increase in June, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.3 percent in April. During the six-month period through June, the index increased 1.1 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
* See notes under data availability.
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET August 16, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income..
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THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.