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Released: Tuesday, July 23, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in May.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Germany edged up in May. In the six-month period ending in May, the leading economic index increased by 2.2 percent (about a 4.5 percent annual rate), a reversal from its contraction of 1.5 percent (about a -3.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, continued to increase in May. Between November 2012 and May 2013, the coincident economic index increased 0.7 percent (about a 1.5 percent annual rate), an improvement from its decline of 0.3 percent (about a -0.6 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. During this same period, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become very widespread with all components rising. Meanwhile, real GDP rose by 0.3 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2013, after contracting by 2.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2012.
         
  • The LEI for Germany has increased in four out of five months in 2013, and as a result its six-month growth rate continued to improve. The CEI for Germany improved for a third consecutive month in May, and its six-month growth rate remains in positive territory. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the German economy is likely to continue expanding in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in May. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were stock prices, the yield spread, inventory change*, consumer confidence, and gross enterprises and properties income*.  Negative contributors — in order from the larger negative contributor to the smaller — were new orders in investment goods industries and new residential construction orders*.    

With the 0.1 percent increase in May, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 104.9 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.4 percent in March.  During the six-month span through May, the index increased 2.2 percent, with six of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.   Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in May. The positive contributors were retail trade, employed persons, and manufacturing sales, while industrial production declined.

With the 0.1 percent increase in May, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.7 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in April and increased 0.2 percent in March.  During the six-month period through May, the index increased 0.7 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY   The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET July 18, 2013.  Some series are estimated as noted below.
    

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income..

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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