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Released: Friday, June 21, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in April.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased slightly in April. In addition, the index was revised upward between November 2012 and March 2013, after first quarter data for gross enterprises and properties income became available. In the six-month period ending April 2013, the leading economic index increased by 2.1 percent (about a 4.3 percent annual rate), a reversal from its contraction of 2.0 percent (about a -4.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators remain very widespread, with all components increasing over the past six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased in April. Between October 2012 and April 2013, the coincident economic index increased 0.6 percent (about a 1.1 percent annual rate), an improvement from its 0.1 percent decline (about a -0.2 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. During this same period, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become very widespread with all components advancing. Meanwhile, real GDP rose by 0.3 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2013, after contracting at 2.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2012.
  • With its fifth consecutive increase in April, the LEI for Germany has returned to its level of one year ago. Meanwhile, the strengths among the leading indicators have become very widespread. The CEI for Germany improved for the third time in the past four months, and its six-month growth rate moved further into positive territory. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the German economy is likely to continue expanding in the near term, though probably at a slow pace.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in April. The positive contributors — starting from the largest positive contributor — were the yield spread, new orders in investment goods industries, gross enterprises and properties income*, inventory change*, and consumer confidence.  Negative contributors — in order from larger to smaller — were stock prices and new residential construction orders*.    

With the 0.1 percent increase in April, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 105.0 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in March and increased 0.5 percent in February.  During the six-month span through April, the index increased 2.1 percent, with all   seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in April. The positive contributors were industrial production, manufacturing sales, and employed persons, while retail trade declined in April.

With the 0.2 percent increase in April, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.5 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in March and remained unchanged in February.  During the six-month period through April, the index increased 0.6 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET June 18, 2013.  Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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