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Benchmark Revisions - March 2007

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Released: Friday, March 22, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.4 percent in January.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased again in January, with large positive contributions from consumer confidence and the yield spread more than offsetting negative contributions from new orders in investment good industries and gross enterprises and properties income. However, the index was revised down between September and November after fourth quarter data for gross enterprises and properties income became available. Between July 2012 and January 2013, the leading economic index decreased by 0.2 percent (about a -0.4 percent annual rate), an improvement over its decline of 1.8 percent (about a -3.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have become slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased in January. In the six-month period ending in January, the coincident economic index decreased by 0.3 percent (about a -0.6 percent annual rate), a reversal from its 0.4 percent increase (about a 0.7 percent annual rate) in the first half of the year. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators have become balanced in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted by 2.3 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2012, the first contraction since the fourth quarter of 2011.
  • The LEI for Germany increased for the second consecutive month, after having mostly declined between February and November 2012. As a result, the decline in its six-month growth rate continues to slow. Meanwhile, the CEI for Germany improved in January, after being on a down trend since July. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the German economy is likely to remain weak in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in January. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were consumer confidence, the yield spread, stock prices, new residential construction orders*, and inventory change*.  New orders in investment goods industries and gross enterprises and properties income* declined in January.    

With the 0.3 percent increase in January, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 103.2 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in December and declined 0.3 percent in November.  During the six-month span through January, the index decreased -0.2 percent, with four of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in January. The positive contributors were retail trade, employed persons, and manufacturing sales, while industrial production was unchanged in January.

With the 0.4 percent increase in January, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.1 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in December and increased 0.1 percent in November.  During the six-month period through January, the index decreased 0.3 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

    FOR TABLES AND CHARTS, SEE BELOW

DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET March 19, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES:  Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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