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Released: Wednesday, December 19, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany remained unchanged and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent in October.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Germany remained unchanged in October after declining since March 2012. The yield spread and consumer confidence made the largest positive contributions this month, offsetting negative contributions from new residential construction orders and gross enterprises and properties income. Between July and September, the LEI was revised down after new data for new residential construction orders and gross enterprises and properties income became available. In the six-month period ending October 2012, the leading economic index decreased by 2.2 percent (about a -4.4 percent annual rate), a reversal from its 1.1 percent increase (about a 2.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.  In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become slightly more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, decreased in October, its third consecutive decline. Between April and October 2012, the coincident economic index decreased by 0.5 percent (about a -0.9 percent annual rate), a turnaround from its 0.4 percent increase (about a 0.8 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. At the same time, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators remain more widespread than the strengths in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 0.9 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2012, slowing from 1.1 percent (annual rate) during the second quarter, and 2.0 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
  • The recent declining trend in the LEI has kept its six-month growth rate in solidly negative territory. Meanwhile, the six-month growth rate for the CEI remains in negative territory. Taken together, the recent declines in both the leading and coincident indexes suggest that the recent slowdown in economic output is likely to continue and economic activity will remain weak in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in October. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, consumer confidence, new orders in investment goods industries, inventory change*, and stock prices.  The negative contributors were new residential construction orders* and gross enterprises and properties income*.    

After remaining unchanged in October, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 101.6 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.6 percent in September and declined 0.2 percent in August.  During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 2.2 percent, with three of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany decreased in October, including industrial production, retail trade, manufacturing sales, and employed persons.

With the 0.4 percent decrease in October, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 106.4 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in September and decreased 0.1 percent in August.  During the six-month period through October, the index decreased 0.5 percent, with one of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET December 17, 2012.  Some series are estimated as noted below.
    

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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