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Released: Tuesday, August 21, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.8 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in June.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Germany decreased for a third consecutive month in June, as declines in stock prices and new residential construction orders* made large negative contributions. Meanwhile, in the six-month period ending June 2012, the leading economic index decreased by 0.3 percent (about a -0.6 percent annual rate), a slower rate of contraction than its 3.0 percent decrease (about a -5.9 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, decreased slightly in June, as industrial production made the largest negative contribution. Despite the declines in recent months, between December 2011 and June 2012, the coincident economic index increased by 0.5 percent (about a 0.9 percent annual rate), faster than its 0.2 percent increase (about a 0.4 percent annual rate) during the prior six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 1.1 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2012, after growing at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the first quarter. 
  • The Conference Board LEI for Germany decreased throughout the second quarter, and, as a result, its six-month growth rate has fallen back into negative territory. However, the strengths are still more widespread than the weaknesses among its components. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany decreased in two out of three months in the second quarter; but its six-month growth rate is still positive. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes for Germany suggests that economic activity will probably continue to expand in the near term, though the rate of expansion will likely slow.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in June. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, inventory change*, and gross enterprises and properties income*.  Negative contributors — in order from largest to smallest — were stock prices, new residential construction orders*, new orders in investment goods industries, and consumer confidence.  

With the 0.8 percent decrease in June, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 103.2 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index declined 0.4 percent in May and declined 0.5 percent in April.  During the six-month span through June, the index decreased -0.3 percent, with six of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 78.6 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Employed persons was the only component of The Conference Board CEI for Germany to increase in June, while industrial production, manufacturing sales, and retail trade declined.

With the 0.1 percent decrease in June, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.0 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in May and decreased 0.3 percent in April.  During the six-month period through June, the index increased 0.5 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET August 16, 2012.  Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in The Conference Board LEI for Germany that are based on our estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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