Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, June 20, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.3 percent in April.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany decreased slightly in April, as stock prices and consumer confidence made the largest negative contributions. However, in the six-month period ending April 2012, the leading economic index increased by 1.9 percent (about a 3.9 percent annual rate), a reversal from its 3.0 percent decrease (about a -5.9 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread recently.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, declined in April, with the only positive contribution coming from employment this month. Between October 2011 and April 2012, the coincident economic index increased 0.6 percent (about a 1.1 percent annual rate), about the same as its 0.5 percent increase (about a 0.9 percent annual rate) between April 2011 and October 2011. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 2.1 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2012, after contracting 0.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2011.
- Despite this month’s decline, The Conference Board LEI for Germany has improved in recent months and its six-month growth rate has moved into positive territory. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany decreased for the first time since August 2011, though its six-month growth rate also remains in positive territory. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes for Germany suggests that economic activity will likely continue growing, though its pace may be moderate in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in April. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were new orders in investment goods industries, the yield spread, inventory change*, and gross enterprises and properties income*. Negative contributors — in order from largest to smallest — were stock prices, consumer confidence, and new residential construction orders*.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in April, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 104.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in March and increased 0.4 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 1.9 percent, with five of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Employed persons made the only positive contribution to The Conference Board CEI for Germany in April, while industrial production, manufacturing sales, and retail trade declined.
With the 0.3 percent decrease in April, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in March and remained unchanged in February. During the six-month period through April, the index increased 0.6 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
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