Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, May 23, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.5 percent in March.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased for a fourth consecutive month in March 2012, as the yield spread and stock prices made the largest positive contributions. In the six-month period ending March 2012, the leading economic index increased by 1.8 percent (about a 3.7 percent annual rate), a reversal from its 2.6 percent decrease (about a -5.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have become much more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased in March for the second time in three months. Between September 2011 and March 2012, the coincident economic index increased 0.8 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate), slightly above its 0.6 percent increase (about a 1.1 percent annual rate) between March 2011 and September 2011. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have also become widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 2.1 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2012, after contracting 0.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2011.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany has improved moderately in recent months after a sharp decrease in the third quarter of 2011, and its six-month growth rate entered positive territory for the first time since last August. Meanwhile, after remaining essentially flat during the second half of 2011, the growth rate of The Conference Board CEI for Germany started to improve in January. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the moderate improvement in economic activity will probably continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in March. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, stock prices, inventory change*, new residential construction orders*, new orders in investment goods industries, and consumer confidence. Gross enterprises and properties income* made the only negative contribution in March.
With the 0.3 percent increase in March, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 104.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in February and increased 0.8 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 1.8 percent, with five of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in March. The positive contributors were industrial production, retail trade, and employed persons, while manufacturing sales made the only negative contribution in March.
With the 0.5 percent increase in March, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 107.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in February and increased 0.5 percent in January. During the six-month period through March, the index increased 0.8 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
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