Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, March 21, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) also increased 0.3 percent in January.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased again in January, but there were downward revisions to the index between September and November as actual data for inventory change became available. Positive contributions from stock prices, new residential construction orders, and consumer confidence more than offset a negative contribution from new orders in investment goods industries this month. Despite the gain, in the six-month period ending in January the leading economic index decreased by 2.7 percent (about a -5.4 percent annual rate), a reversal from the 1.9 percent increase (about a 3.9 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained very widespread in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased in January after remaining flat for four consecutive months. Between July 2011 and January 2012, the coincident economic index increased by 0.2 percent (about a 0.4 percent annual rate), slower than the growth of 1.0 percent (about a 2.1 percent annual rate) between January and July 2011. During the last six months, the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained balanced. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at a 0.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, its first contraction since the beginning of 2009.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in January for the third time in the last four months. However, the six-month growth rate remains negative as a result of large declines in August and September of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany also advanced this month after staying flat between August and December 2011, but the six-month growth in the index has moderated from last year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will remain weak in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in January. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were stock prices, new residential construction orders*, consumer confidence, the yield spread, and inventory change*. Negative contributors — in order from the larger to the smaller — were new orders in investment goods industries and gross enterprises and properties income*.
With the 0.3 percent increase in January, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 103.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in December and declined 0.2 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index decreased 2.7 percent, with one of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 14.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS.Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in January. The positive contributors were manufacturing sales, employed persons, and industrial production. Retail trade declined in January.
With the 0.3 percent increase in January, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 106.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in both December and November. During the six-month period through January, the index increased 0.2 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
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