Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, January 24, 2012
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany fell in November, the third decrease in the last four months, with new orders in investment goods industries making the largest negative contribution. In the six-month period ending November 2011, the leading economic index decreased by 2.9 percent (about a -5.7 percent annual rate), a reversal from the 2.5 percent increase (about a 5.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, decreased in November after remaining unchanged the previous two months. Between May and November 2011, the coincident economic index increased slightly by 0.1 percent (about a 0.2 percent annual rate), slower than the growth of 1.3 percent (about a 2.7 percent annual rate) between November 2010 and May 2011. However, the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators have only been balanced in the last six months with equal numbers of components rising and falling over the last six month period. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2011, after growth of 1.1 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- In November, The Conference Board CEI for Germany continued its downward trend which started in mid-2011, after increasing slightly in October. As a result, the index’s six-month growth rate has fallen to its lowest level since May 2009. Meanwhile, the Conference Board CEI for Germany declined this month and its rate of growth has slowed recently. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity may weaken further in the near term and that the risk of a downturn has not become lower.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in November. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were the yield spread, inventory change*, new residential construction orders*, consumer confidence, and gross enterprises and properties income*. Negative contributors —in order from larger to smaller — were new orders in investment goods industries and stock prices.
With the 0.2 percent increase in November, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 103.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in October and declined 1.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 2.9 percent, with two of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).
One of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in November. The positive contributor was employed persons. Manufacturing sales, retail trade, and industrial production declined in November.
With the 0.2 percent increase in November, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 106.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in both October and September. During the six-month period through November, the index increased 0.1 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
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THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.