Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in October.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in October following two large declines. Positive contributions from stock prices and new orders in investment goods industries more than offset a negative contribution from consumer confidence. The index was revised upward between June and September after new data for gross enterprises and properties income became available. Despite the gain, in the six-month period ending October 2011, the leading economic index decreased by 2.4 percent (about a -4.7 percent annual rate), a reversal from the 3.6 percent increase (about a 7.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased in October for the first time since July. Between April and October 2011, the coincident economic index increased by 0.4 percent (about 0.8 percent annual rate), slower than the growth of 1.4 percent (about a 2.9 percent annual rate) between October 2010 and April 2011. Nonetheless, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in the last six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2011, after growth of 1.1 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in October after declining sharply in August and September. However, the six-month growth rate remains at its lowest level since May 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased this month; though its rate of growth has slowed recently. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity may slow in the near term and that the risk of a downturn remains high.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in October. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were stock prices, new orders in investment goods industries, the yield spread, inventory change*, and gross enterprises and properties income*. Negative contributors—in order from the larger to the smaller — were consumer confidence and new residential construction orders*.
With the 0.3 percent increase in October, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 106.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 1.3 percent in September and declined 2.1 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 2.4 percent, with two of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in October. The positive contributors were industrial production, retail trade, and employed persons. Manufacturing sales declined in October.
With the 0.1 percent increase in October, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 106.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in September and decreased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
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