Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, July 25, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in May.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany continued to increase in May. With the exception of stock prices, all components contributed positively to the index this month. During the six-month period ending May 2011, the leading economic index increased 4.3 percent (an 8.9 percent annual rate), slightly faster than the increase of 4.1 percent (an 8.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased as well in May, following no change in April. Retail trade made a large negative contribution to the index this month, its second during the past three months. Between November 2010 and May 2011, the coincident economic index grew by 1.3 percent (a 2.7 percent annual rate), faster than the increase of 0.5 percent (a 1.0 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending November 2010. Additionally, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained widespread. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 6.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, following growth of 1.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany continued to increase in May, amid widespread strengths among its components. The index has been increasing for over two years now, and is now slightly above its last peak in July 2007. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased this month, but its six-month growth rate has remained relatively stable. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue to expand in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in May. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, new residential construction orders*, consumer confidence, new orders in investment goods industries, gross enterprises and properties income*, and inventory change*. Stock prices declined in May.
With the 0.5 percent increase in May, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 110.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in April and increased 0.6 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 4.3 percent, with six of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in May. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were manufacturing sales, industrial production, and employed persons. Retail trade declined in May.
With the 0.1 percent increase in May, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 106.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in April and increased 0.1 percent in March. During the six-month period through May, the index increased 1.3 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
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