Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, February 18, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in December.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased again in December and November’s increase was revised down slightly as new data became available for new residential construction orders and gross enterprises and properties income. Strong positive contributions from the yield spread, stock prices, and new orders for investment goods more than offset the declines in consumer confidence and new orders in residential construction. Between June and December 2010, the leading economic index increased 4.1 percent (about an 8.4 percent annual rate), modestly slower than the increase of 5.3 percent (about a 10.8 percent annual rate) during the first half of 2010. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased as well in December, following a slight decline in November. This index has risen in three of the last six months. During the last half of 2010, the coincident economic index increased 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate), well below the increase of 1.9 percent (about a 3.7 percent annual rate) between December 2009 and June 2010. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses during the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, following an increase of 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany has been on a rapidly rising trend for more than one and a half years now, amid widespread strength among its components. Despite a slightly slower monthly growth rate in December, its six-month growth rate has picked up slightly in recent months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany has risen more modestly since May 2010, after increasing strongly earlier in 2010. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the moderate expansion in economic activity should continue.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in December. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were the yield spread, stock prices, new orders in investment goods industries, and inventory change*. The negative contributors—in order from largest to smallest— were consumer confidence, new residential construction orders*, and gross enterprises and properties income*.
With the 0.4 percent increase in December, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 106.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in November and increased 0.7 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 4.1 percent, with six of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in December. The positive contributors were manufacturing sales, employed persons, and retail trade. Industrial production declined in December.
With the 0.2 percent increase in December, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 104.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in November and increased 0.4 percent in October. During the six-month period through December, the index increased 0.5 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
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