Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, January 24, 2011
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.9 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased sharply again in November, due to large positive contributions from consumer confidence, stock prices, new orders for investment goods, and the yield spread. Between May and November 2010, the leading economic index increased by 4.0 percent (about an 8.2 percent annual rate), slower than the increase of 6.1 percent (about a 12.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. However, the strengths among the leading indicators were more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, declined slightly in November. A large negative contribution from retail trade more than offset the positive contributions from manufacturing sales and employment. During the six-month period ending in November, the coincident economic index increased 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate), well below the increase of 2.0 percent (about a 4.0 percent annual rate) between November 2009 and May 2010. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators were more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. In addition, real GDP increased at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010, following an increase of 9.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany has been on a rising trend for more than one and a half years now, amid widespread strength among its components. Its six-month growth rate has moderated from the middle of last year, but it has stabilized lately. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany has risen slightly since May 2010, after increasing strongly in the first half of last year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the moderate expansion in economic activity, although volatile, should continue, and could even pickup somewhat in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in November. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were consumer confidence, new orders in investment goods industries, stock prices, the yield spread, new residential construction orders*, and inventory change*. Gross enterprises and properties income* remained unchanged in November.
With the 0.9 percent increase in November, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 106.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in October and increased 0.6 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 4.0 percent, with five of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in November. The positive contributors — in order from the larger positive contributor— were manufacturing sales and employed persons. Retail trade and industrial production declined in November.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in November, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 104.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in October and decreased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the index increased 0.3 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
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