Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, December 20, 2006
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Germany declined 0.1 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in October.
- The leading index decreased slightly in October, and September's no change was revised up slightly as a result of data revisions. The leading index grew 0.5 percent from April to October (about a 1.0 percent annual rate), and its growth has been fluctuating around a 1.0 percent annual rate in recent months, but this is down from a very rapid rate of 5.0 to 6.0 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2006. In addition, although the strengths among the leading indicators have become somewhat less widespread, strengths and weaknesses have been fairly balanced in recent months.
- The coincident index also decreased slightly in October, following a slight increase in September. Positive contributions from employment and manufacturing sales were offset by larger negative contributions from retail trade and industrial production. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2006, down from the 3.8 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2006. The recent behavior of the leading index still suggests that moderate economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the eight components in the leading index increased in October. The positive contributors to the leading index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are stock prices, gross enterprises and properties income*, and the inventory change series*. Negative contributors — in order from largest to smallest — are new orders in investment goods industries, yield spread, the growth rate of CPI for services, and new residential construction orders. Consumer confidence remained unchanged in October.
With the 0.1 percent increase in October, the leading index now stands at 107.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in September and increased 0.5 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the leading index increased 0.5 percent, with five of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors to the coincident index were employed persons, and manufacturing sales. Retail trade and industrial production declined in October.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in October, the coincident index now stands at 106.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in September and increased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the coincident index increased 1.2 percent, with all of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10:00 A.M. ET December 18, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income. There are no series in the coincident index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.