Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, September 22, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Germany increased 0.4 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in July.
- The leading index increased again in July -- the third increase in the last four months. With this month’s gain, the leading index has been increasing at a 1.5-2.5 percent annual rate, following an essentially flat period in the first half of 2005. The strength among the leading indicators has also been more widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index increased slightly in July and it has been on a slightly rising trend over the past year. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 0.04 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2005, down from the 3.0 percent rate in the first quarter, but up from a small decline (a -0.4 percent average rate) in the second half of 2004. The moderate growth in the leading index in recent months suggests that the economy should continue to expand in the near term.
Leading Indicators.Seven of the eight components in the leading index increased in July. The positive contributors to the leading index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are new orders in investment goods industries, stock prices, gross enterprises and properties income*, new residential construction orders*, the growth rate of CPI for services, the yield spread, and the inventory change series*. Consumer confidence declined in July.
With the 0.4 percent increase in July, the leading index now stands at 104.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in June and was unchanged in May. During the six-month span through July, the leading index increased 1.1 percent, with five of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Four of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in July. The positive contributors to the coincident index were industrial production and retail trade. Manufacturing sales and employed persons* declined in July.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in July, the coincident index now stands at 104.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in June and increased 0.1 percent in May. During the six-month period through July, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET September 21, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventory change and gross enterprises and properties income. There are no series in the coincident index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.