Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, March 23, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Germany increased 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in January.
- The leading index increased slightly in January, but there were large downward revisions to the previous several months, as actual fourth quarter data for inventory change and gross enterprises and property income became available. As a result, the growth rate of the leading index has continued fluctuating in the 0.0 to 1.0 percent range (annual rate). This is an improvement from slight declines in early 2004, but the current growth rate is well below the 4.0 to 5.0 percent growth reached in the second half of 2003.
- The coincident index increased in January following a small decline in December, which keeps it on a gradually rising trend that started in late 2003. Real GDP growth continued slowing in the last several quarters -- to a 0.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2004 and a -0.9 percent rate in the fourth quarter, down from a 1.7 percent average rate in the first half of 2004. The growth rate of the leading index in recent months is only slightly below the long-term trend growth rate, and it suggests that the economy should resume growing in the near term, albeit at a sluggish rate.
Leading Indicators.Two of the eight components in the leading index increased in January. The positive contributors to the leading index - in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller - are consumer confidence and stock prices. New residential construction orders*, the inventory change series*, the growth rate of CPI for services, and gross enterprises and properties income* declined, while new orders in investment goods industries and the yield spread remained unchanged in January.
With the 0.1 percent increase in January, the leading index now stands at 103.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in December and remained unchanged in November. During the six-month span through January, the leading index increased 0.2 percent, with six of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.All four components that make up the coincident index increased in January. The positive contributors to the coincident index were industrial production, manufacturing sales, employed persons*, and retail trade.
With the 0.3 percent increase in January, the coincident index now stands at 104.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in December and was unchanged in November. During the six-month period through January, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET March 22, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income. Series in the coincident index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates include employed persons.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.