Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, February 23, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Germany increased 0.2 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in December.
- The leading index increased in December following no change in November. This keeps the growth rate of the leading index in the1.0-2.0 percent range (annual rate) in recent months, which is up from slight declines in early 2004, but is still well below the 4.0 to 5.0 percent growth rate in the second half of 2003.
- The coincident index increased slightly in December, and it continues to fluctuate around a flat trend in recent months. At the same time, real GDP growth continued slowing, from a 1.7 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2004, to a 0.1 percent rate in the third quarter and to a -0.9 percent rate in the fourth quarter. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that economic growth should pick up slightly in the near term.
Leading Indicators.Three of the eight components in the leading index increased in December. The positive contributors to the leading index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are new orders in investment goods industries, stock prices, and consumer confidence. The yield spread, gross enterprises and properties income*, the growth rate of CPI for services, the inventory change series*, and new residential construction orders* declined in December.
With the 0.2 percent increase in December, the leading index now stands at 104.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in November and decreased 0.1 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the leading index increased 1.0 percent, with four of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in December. The positive contributors to the coincident index were manufacturing sales, employed persons*, and industrial production. Retail trade declined in December.
With the 0.1 percent increase in December, the coincident index now stands at 104.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in November and was unchanged in October. During the six-month period through December, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET February 22, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income. Series in the coincident index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates include employed persons.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.