Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, October 20, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that leading index for Germany declined 0.3 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in August.
- The leading index fell in August and the previously reported no change in July was revised to a small decline. However, the leading index was at its weakest earlier this year when it fell briefly at a 2.0 percent annual rate, and it has picked up to about a 1.0 percent rate since then. In general, the leading indicator has been about flat so far this year after increasing at a 4.0 to 5.0 percent rate in the second half of last year.
- The coincident index increased again in August, and is still on an upward trend. At the same time, real GDP increased at a 1.8 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2004, up from 1.2 percent in the second half of last year. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that economic growth will continue, but probably at a more moderate rate than in the first half of the year.
Leading Indicators.Five of the eight components in the leading index decreased in August. The negative contributors to the leading index - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are stock prices, new orders in investment goods industries, consumer confidence, the yield spread, and gross enterprises and properties income*. The inventory change series* and new residential construction orders* increased in August, while the growth rate of CPI for services remained unchanged.
With the decline of 0.3 percent, the leading index now stands at 102.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in July and increased 0.4 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the leading index increased 0.2 percent, with four of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in August. The positive contributors to the coincident index were retail trade, manufacturing sales, and employed persons*. Industrial production declined in August.
With the 0.1 percent increase in August, the coincident index now stands at 104.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained flat in July and increased 0.2 percent in June. During the six-month period through August, the coincident index increased 0.5 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two October 19, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income. Series in the coincident index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates include employed persons.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.