Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, August 18, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that both leading and coincident indexes for Germany increased 0.1 percent in June.
- The leading index increased slightly in June, but May’s increase was revised down to a small decline as actual data for new residential construction orders became available. The coincident index also increased slightly in June, keeping it on a flat to slightly rising trend since mid-2003.
- The growth rate of the leading index has dropped to about a -2.0 percent annual rate so far this year. The largest declines occurred during the first quarter of the year, and this was followed by a slight upturn in the second quarter.
- Real GDP increased at a 1.8 percent average annual rate in the first two quarters of 2004, and the weakness in the leading index early this year suggests some slowdown in the rate of economic growth.
Leading Indicators. Four of the eight components in the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors to the leading index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are consumer confidence, stock prices, the inventory change series*, and the yield spread. New residential construction orders*, gross enterprises and properties income*, and new orders in investment goods industries decreased in June. The growth rate of CPI for services remained unchanged.
With a 0.1 percent increase in June, the leading index now stands at 101.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index decreased 1.2 percent, with three of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors to the coincident index were manufacturing sales, industrial production, and employed persons*. Retail trade decreased in June.
With the 0.1 percent increase in June, the coincident index now stands at 103.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month period through June, the coincident index increased 0.0 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two August 18, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income. Series in the coincident index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates include employed persons.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.