Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, August 21, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Germany increased 0.5 percent and the coincident index remained unchanged in June.
- June’s increase in the leading index was the largest one-month gain since April 2002. A significant turnaround in consumer confidence and new orders, coupled with a continuing gain in the stock market, contributed to this month’s increase.
- The coincident index held steady in June, after declining for nine of the last ten months. A significant improvement in retail trade and manufacturing sales was offset by still-sluggish industrial production and employment.
- With June’s increase, the leading index is now 0.7% above its recent low in March, and the previous weakness in the leading index may have ended. The improvement in the leading index may be signaling better economic growth by year end.
Leading Indicators. Five of the eight components in the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors to the leading index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are stock prices, consumer confidence, new orders in investment goods industries, the inventory change series*, and the yield spread. Three of the eight components in the leading index decreased in June. The negative contributors to the leading index -in order from the largest to the smallest negative contributor- are the growth rate of CPI for services, new residential construction orders and gross enterprises and properties income*.
With a 0.5 percent increase in June, the leading index now stands at 100.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.3 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index decreased 0.9 percent, with four of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 56.3 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors to the coincident index – in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller- are retail trade sales and manufacturing sales. Employment and industrial production decreased in June.
Holding steady in June, the coincident index now stands at 108.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.7 percent in May and decreased 0.4 percent in April. During the six-month period through June, the coincident index decreased 1.6 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on August 20, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the composite indexes for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventory change and gross enterprises and properties income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.