Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, January 21, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Germany increased 0.4 percent, and the coincident index decreased 0.3 percent in November.
- The leading index for Germany increased modestly in November, but it is still more than 7.0 percent below its highest level, which occurred in February 2000. The duration and depth of this decline suggests a low likelihood of a strong recovery for the German economy in the near future.
- The weakness in the coincident index during November was concentrated again in the labor market, however, retail sales also contributed to the decline. The coincident index is more than 2.5 percent below its historical peak, which occurred in September 2000.
Leading Indicators. Five of the eight components in the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors to the leading index -in order from the largest to the smallest positive contributor- include stock prices, the inventory change series*, the yield spread, new residential construction orders* and new orders in investment goods industries. Three of the eight components in the leading index decreased in November. The negative contributors to the leading index -in order from the larger negative contributor to the smaller- are growth rate of CPI services, gross enterprises and properties income* and consumer confidence*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in November, the leading index now stands at 101.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.8 percent in October and was unchanged in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index decreased 1.5 percent, with five of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 37.5 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in November. The negative contributors to the coincident index -in order from the larger negative contributor to the smaller- are employment and retail trade sales. The positive contributors to the coincident index - in order from the larger to the smaller positive contributor- are industrial production and manufacturing sales.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 110.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.5 percent in October and was unchanged in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident index decreased 0.7 percent, with two of its four components making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 9 A.M. ET on January 16, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventory change, consumer confidence index, new residential construction orders and gross enterprises and properties income.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.