Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, January 21, 2014
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France increased 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for France edged up in November, with a large positive contribution from the yield spread more than offsetting the negative contribution from unemployment claims (inverted). The six-month growth rate of the LEI slowed to 1.1 percent (about a 2.2 percent annual rate) between May and November, from 1.6 percent (about a 3.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in November. The index declined by 0.1 percent (about a -0.2 percent annual rate) between May and November, after no change over the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have become more widespread than strengths during the last six months. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted 0.5 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, after growing 2.3 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2013.
- The LEI for France has been trending upward throughout 2013, but its six-month growth rate slowed in recent months. Meanwhile, the CEI has been relatively flat for the past year, but widespread weaknesses among its components are keeping its six-month growth rate negative. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the contraction in economic activity will probably ease in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components of the leading economic index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the yield spread, building permits (residential), the stock price index, and industrial new orders. The negative contributors to the index — beginning with the largest negative contributor — are (inverted) new unemployment claims, production expectations, and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing*.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in November, the leading economic index now stands at 116.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in October and declined 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.1 percent, and four of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
Three of the four components of the coincident economic index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index were industrial production, wage and salaries*, and personal consumption. Employment* declined in November.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in November, the coincident economic index now stands at 103.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and September. During the six-month period through November, the index decreased 0.1 percent, with only one of the four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
* See notes under data availability.
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on January 17, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*The series in The Conference Board LEI for France that is based on our estimates is the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing. Series in The Conference Board CEI for France that are based on our estimates are number of employees and wage and salaries.
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