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Released: Friday, August 16, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France remained unchanged and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in June.

  • The Conference Board LEI for France was unchanged in June, as positive contributions from the yield spread, production expectations, new unemployment claims and industrial new orders were offset by negative contributions from residential building permits and stock prices. In the six-month period ending in June, the leading economic index increased 1.6 percent (about a 3.2 percent annual rate), up from its increase of 1.1 percent (about a 2.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, decreased slightly in June. The index was unchanged between December 2012 and June 2013, an improvement over its contraction of 0.4 percent (about a -0.8 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators remain more widespread than the strengths in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased by 2.0 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter after contracting 0.8 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
  • The LEI for France has been on an upward trend since the beginning of 2013, and remains well above its most recent peak in October 2007. As a result, the LEI’s six-month growth rate has improved. Meanwhile, the CEI has been flat over the past six months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the recovery in economic activity will likely continue at a modest pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components of the leading economic index increased in June.  The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the yield spread, inverted new unemployment claims, production expectations, industrial new orders, and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing*.  The negative contributors to the index — beginning with the larger negative contributor — are building permits (residential) and the stock price index.    

After remaining unchanged in June, the leading economic index stands at 115.3 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in May and declined 0.5 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.6 percent, and six of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 78.6 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Of the four components of the coincident economic index, only personal consumption increased in June.  Industrial production and employment* declined, while wage and salaries* was unchanged in June.    

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in June, the coincident economic index now stands at 104.0 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in May and increased 0.2 percent in April.  During the six-month period through June, the index was flat, with one of the four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France reported in this release are those available “as of” 12 P.M. ET on August 14, 2013.  Some series are estimated as noted below.

*The series in The Conference Board LEI for France that is based on our estimates is the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing. Series in The Conference Board CEI for France that are based on our estimates are number of employees and wage and salaries.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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