Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, November 19, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France increased 0.6 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in September.
- The Conference Board LEI for France increased for a third consecutive month in September led by positive contributions from new unemployment claims (inverted), the yield spread, and industrial new orders. In the six-month period ending September 2012, the leading economic index increased by 1.0 percent (about a 1.9 percent annual rate), slower than its 1.4 percent increase (about a 2.9 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. However, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, decreased slightly in September, after remaining unchanged from March through August. Between March and September 2012, the index fell by 0.1 percent (about a -0.2 percent annual rate), the same rate of decline as between September 2011 and March 2012. In addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have been more widespread than the strengths in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew at a 0.9 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2012, after remaining almost flat over the prior three quarters.
- The LEI for France has increased throughout the third quarter of 2012, following a small decline during the second quarter, and its six-month growth rate remains positive. During the past year, the CEI for France has been relatively flat, with real GDP showing a similar trend. The recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy is unlikely to grow at anything more than a slow pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components of the leading economic index increased in September. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the inverted new unemployment claims, the yield spread, industrial new orders, building permits (residential), the stock price index, and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing*. Production expectations made the only negative contribution to the index in September.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in September, the leading economic index now stands at 114.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.0 percent, and two of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 35.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components of the coincident economic index increased in September. The positive contributors to the index were wage and salaries* and personal consumption. Industrial production and employment* declined in September.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in September, the coincident economic index now stands at 104.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in both August and July. During the six-month period through September, the index decreased 0.1 percent, with one of the four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 37.5 percent).
See notes under data availability.
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on November 16, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.
The series in The Conference Board LEI for France that is based on our estimates is the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing. Series in The Conference Board CEI for France that are based on our estimates are number of employees and wage and salaries.
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THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.