Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, August 19, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France increased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in June
- The Conference Board LEI for France increased in June, after declining in May. Positive contributions from the interest rate spread, industrial new orders and production expectations more than offset the decline in stock prices. In the six-month period ending June 2011, the leading economic index increased 3.0 percent (about a 6.0 percent annual rate), the same rate that prevailed in the last half of 2010. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic conditions, increased as well in June, led by large gains in personal consumption expenditures and employment. Between December 2010 and June 2011, the coincident economic index increased 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate), slower than the increase of 1.0 percent (about a 1.9 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained balanced recently. Meanwhile, real GDP was essentially unchanged in the second quarter of 2011, after increasing at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for France picked up in June following May’s decline. In addition, its six-month growth rate has been relatively steady, fluctuating within a range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent during 2011. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI has been on a rising trend since reaching its most recent trough in August 2009, though it is still below its most recent peak in February 2008. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should expand, albeit moderately, in the near term.
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LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components of the leading economic index increased in June. The positive contributors to the index— in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were the interest rate spread, industrial new orders, production expectations, and building permits (residential). The negative contributors to the index— beginning with the largest negative contributor— were stock prices, the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing*, and new unemployment claims (inverted).
With the increase of 0.5 percent in June, the leading economic index now stands at 114.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in May and increased 0.3 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 3.0 percent, and five of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components of the coincident economic index increased in June. The positive contributors to the index— in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were personal consumption*, employment*, and wage and salaries*. Industrial production declined in June.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in June, the coincident economic index now stands at 105.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in May and decreased 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month period through June, the index increased 0.5 percent, with two of the four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
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THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.