Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, February 16, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France increased 0.8 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in December.
- The Conference Board LEI for France increased sharply in December, following a decline in November. The yield spread, industrial new orders and production expectations made large positive contributions to the index this month. During the last half of 2010, the leading economic index increased 3.3 percent (about a 6.8 percent annual rate), faster than the increase of 2.4 percent (about a 4.8 percent annual rate) during the first half of 2010. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, increased for the second consecutive month in December following no change in October. Between June and December 2010, the coincident economic index grew 0.9 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate), slightly above the increase of 0.6 percent (about a 1.2 percent annual rate) between December 2009 and June 2010. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been very widespread, with all four components advancing over the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010, following an increase of 2.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for France resumed rising in December, after declining in November. The index has been on a general upward trend since April 2009, and its six-month growth rate has picked up somewhat lately. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for France has been on an increasing trend since reaching a trough in August 2009, while its six-month growth rate has quickened somewhat as well. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue to grow, and could even pick up modestly in the near term.
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LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components of the leading economic index increased in December. The positive contributors to the index— in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— are the yield spread, industrial new orders, production expectations, building permits (residential), and the stock price index. The inverted new unemployment claims component and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing* remained unchanged in December.
With the increase of 0.8 percent in December, the leading economic index now stands at 111.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in November and increased 0.2 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 3.3 percent, and six of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components of the coincident economic index increased in December. The positive contributors to the index were wage and salaries*, employment*, personal consumption, and industrial production.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in December, the coincident economic index now stands at 104.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in November and remained unchanged in October. During the six-month period through December, the index increased 0.9 percent, with all four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Prior to March 1994, the residential building permits component of The Conference Board LEI for France is calculated as permits granted minus permits cancelled. From March 1994 going forward, the permits granted series replaces residential building permits (an original component of the LEI) because of delays in the publication of permits cancelled data by the source agency. The impact on the LEI is negligible. If the missing series becomes available, the original definition of the housing permits series may be restored.
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