Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, January 21, 2011
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France declined 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for France declined in November, following four consecutive monthly increases. Large negative contributions from unemployment claims (inverted) and production expectations more than offset the large increase in the yield spread. As a result, the six-month growth rate continued to moderate – to 2.2 percent (about a 4.5 percent annual rate) in the period through November 2010, slower than the increase of 2.9 percent (about a 6.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. However, the strengths among the leading indicators were more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, increased in November, with all components advancing. Between May and November 2010, the coincident economic index increased by 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate), slightly below the growth of 0.8 percent (about a 1.6 percent annual rate) between November 2009 and May 2010. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been very widespread, with all four components advancing in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010, following growth of 2.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for France has been on a general upward trend since April 2009, although it declined this month and its six-month growth rate has moderated lately. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for France has increased slightly in 2010, though its six-month growth rate has slowed somewhat as well. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue to grow moderately in the near term.
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LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components of the leading economic index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the yield spread, the stock price index, and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing*. The negative contributors to the index — beginning with the largest negative contributor — are the inverted new unemployment claims, production expectations, building permits, and industrial new orders.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in November, the leading economic index now stands at 111.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in October and increased 0.7 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 2.2 percent, and five of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four of the four components of the coincident economic index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were personal consumption, industrial production, wage and salaries*, and employment*.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in November, the coincident economic index now stands at 104.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the index increased 0.5 percent, and all four components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Prior to March 1994, the residential building permits component of The Conference Board LEI for France is calculated as permits granted minus permits cancelled. From March 1994 going forward, the permits granted series replaces residential building permits (an original component of the LEI) because of delays in the publication of permits cancelled data by the source agency. The impact on the LEI is negligible. If the missing series becomes available, the original definition of the housing permits series may be restored.
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