Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, December 16, 2004
The Conference Board reports today that the leading index for France increased 0.3 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in October.
- The leading index increased again in October and was revised up significantly for the previous several months as actual data for inventories in the third quarter became available. The leading index has been increasing steadily for a year, and its strength continues to be widespread. With the upward revisions, the growth rate of the leading index has slowed only slightly to a 4.0 percent annual rate from 5.0 percent earlier this year.
- Real GDP growth slowed to a 0.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2004 after increasing at a 2.9 percent average rate over the previous four quarters. The continued strength of the leading index suggests that economic growth should pick up in the near term from the third-quarter’s sluggish pace.
Leading Indicators.Seven of the ten components of the leading index increased in October. The positive contributors to the index —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— are the inverted new unemployment claims, personal consumption of manufacturing goods, building permits (residential), the inverted bond yield, industrial new orders, the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost for manufacturing*, and the stock price index. The consumer confidence index (opinion balance) and the yield spread declined in October, while change in stocks* remained unchanged. (For details, see data availability section and tables.)
With the 0.3 percent increase in October, the leading index now stands at 106.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.5 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the leading index increased 1.9 percent, and eight of the ten components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components of the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors to the index were retail sales and real imports*. Industrial production declined, while paid employment* was unchanged in October. (For details, see data availability section and tables.)
With the 0.1 percent increase in October, the coincident index now stands at 115.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in September and was unchanged in August. During the six-month period through October, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, with three of the four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on December 15, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are change in stocks and ratio deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are the deflator of real imports and paid employment.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.