Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, October 11, 2002
The Conference Board reports today that the leading index for France decreased 0.1 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in August.
- With this month’s decrease, the leading index has now declined in four of the last five months. The stock price index continued to drop in August, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline. In addition to the weak financial sector, a rise in new unemployment claims and sluggish housing and industrial orders sectors contributed to this month’s decline in the leading index.
- The coincident index continued its moderate growth in August, driven by an improved retail sales sector. The direction of employment and imports will determine the trend of the coincident index in the coming months.
Leading Indicators. Four of the ten components of the leading index increased in August. The positive contributors to the index —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— are inverted bond yields, personal consumption of manufacturing goods, change in stocks*, and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost for manufacturing*. Five of the ten components of the leading index decreased in August. The negative contributors to the index —in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are inverted new unemployment claims, industrial new orders, the stock price index, yield spread, and building permits (residential). Consumer confidence index (opinion balance) remained unchanged in August. (For details, see data availability section and tables.)
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in August, the leading index now stands at 103.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in July and decreased 0.2 percent again in June. During the six-month span through August, the leading index decreased 0.4 percent, and four of the ten components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components of the coincident index increased in August. The positive contributors to the index —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are retail sales, paid employment*, real imports* and industrial production*. (For details, see data availability section and tables.)
With the increase of 0.1 percent in August, the coincident index now stands at 114.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in July and decreased 0.1 percent in June. During the six-month period through August, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, with all four series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on October 9, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are change in stocks and ratio deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production, real imports and paid employment.
For further information, please visit our research associate in France at www.coe-rexecode.fr/index.jsv
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.