Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, July 11, 2002
The Conference Board reports today that the leading index for France increased 0.4 percent in May, while the coincident index increased 0.2 percent.
- The increase in the leading index this month is the largest one-month increase since June 2000. The significant improvement in the consumer confidence index, coupled with positive movements in the housing and industrial sectors, boosted the leading index in May.
- Despite this gain, the financial sector of the leading index still appears to be sluggish, and needs to be closely monitored in the coming months.
- The coincident index continues its slow but fairly stable growth since the beginning of this year. Although the retail sector is declining moderately, the other sectors of the coincident index are moving towards a positive trend.
Leading Indicators. Six of the ten components of the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors to the index -in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest- are consumer confidence index, change in stocks*, inverted new unemployment claims, building permits (residential), industrial new orders (opinion balance), and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost for manufacturing*. Stock price index decreased, and personal consumption of manufacturing goods, inverted bond yields, and yield spread held steady in May. (For details, see data availability section and tables.)
With the increase of 0.4 percent in May, the leading index now stands at 103.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in April and held steady in March. During the six-month span through May, the leading index increased 0.8 percent, and seven of the ten components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components of the coincident index increased in May. The increases occurred in paid employment* and real imports*. Retail sales decreased and industrial production* held steady in May. (For details, see data availability section and tables.)
With the increase of 0.2 percent in May, the coincident index now stands at 114.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month period through May, the coincident index increased 1.0 percent, with all of four series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on July 9, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are change in stocks and ratio deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production, real imports and paid employment.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.