Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, August 13, 2002
The Conference Board reports today that the leading index for France decreased 0.1 percent in June, while the coincident index held steady.
- Despite the recent decline in the leading index, the recovery in the French leading indicators appears to continue at a slow pace. The leading index is now 0.7 percent above its most recent trough in November 2001, and this improvement is becoming more widespread throughout the components of the leading index.
- A sharp decline in the stock market, coupled with deterioration in the industrial new orders as well as consumer confidence, contributed to the decrease in the leading index this month.
- After five consecutive monthly gains in the coincident index, a decline in retail sales resulted in this month's flatness in the coincident index.
Leading Indicators. Six of the ten components of the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors to the index -in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest- are change in stocks*, inverted new unemployment claims, inverted bond yields, building permits (residential), personal consumption of manufacturing goods, and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost for manufacturing*. Four of the ten components of the leading index decreased in June. The negative contributors to the index -in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest-are the stock price index, industrial new orders, consumer confidence index (opinion balance), and yield spread. (For details, see data availability section and tables.)
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in June, the leading index now stands at 103.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in May and held steady in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index increased 0.5 percent, and six of the ten components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 60 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components of the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors to the index -in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest-are paid employment*, real imports*, and industrial production*. Retail sales decreased in June. (For details, see data availability section and tables.)
Holding steady in June, the coincident index now stands at 114.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.1 percent again in April. During the six-month period through June, the coincident index increased 0.8 percent, with all of four series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on August 9, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are change in stocks and ratio deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production, real imports and paid employment.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.