Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - July 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, March 15, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.4 percent in January, after remaining unchanged in December 2012 and increasing 0.1 percent in November. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 103.4 (2004=100).
“The UK LEI increased in January and its moderately positive growth rate suggests the UK economy may grow slowly in 2013, after a dismal 2012,” says Brian Schaitkin, Economist for Europe with The Conference Board. “While business confidence and financial indicators have contributed to the recent improvements, declining retail sales and weak though somewhat improved consumer confidence remain constraints on growth.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.1 percent in January, after increasing 0.2 percent in December 2012 and increasing 0.1 percent in November 2012. The index now stands at 104.2 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
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About The Conference Board
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